The Known Unknowns - Crisis Management in Uncertain Times

In February 2002, while delivering a news briefing in relation to the Weapons of Mass destruction in Iraq, the then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, used the now famous phrase of “there are known knowns”. Rumsfeld was indicting that when in dealing with any situation or crises, there are frequently something we just do not know. In an aviation context and in the current time where uncertainty prevails. the meaning of this phrase fits well as a framework for this discussion on crisis management. Pandemics are not a new phenomenon for the commercial aviation industry, with it having over the last few years to address and adapt to outbreaksof the Bird flu, Swine flu and Ebola to name a few. So, what is different with Covid-19 as opposed to the previous outbreaks? There are many but one fact that all agree on is that the timely isolation of the virus is key to controlling its spread. As an industry we need to ask ourselves, did the aviation community treat the Covid19 virus as a “known known”? I would argue yes. Drawing on its past experiences with previous virus, the “know knowns”, the industry addressed Covid-19 as they had done previously. This did work well up to the point, however when isolation of the virus was no longer possible and the model from dealing with previous events was not successfully in the containment of the virus, Covid-19 became a “known unknown”.

As an industry, we should pose the question to ourselves, how can we better prepare for the “known unknown” events that will arise from time to time casing a crisis? By its very nature, such events provide us with very little fact or evidence of the outcome of our actions, however there are certainly things that can be done in preparation. There are three main pillars which I believe ensure that an organisation is in the position of dealing with “known unknowns”. The first one is the having in place a dedicated crisis management process to deal with such events that may cause serious consequences for the company brand. These events typically involve people be it injuries, loss of life or other type of a serious crisis affecting the human being. 

Such crisis management process requires the organization to have clearly defined roles, leadership, and a communication strategy. This is the process you can and should control. One of the key tools to assist in this process will be the use of technology. Pillar two is the use by a crisis team of cutting edge technology. Technology gives the crises management process an important advantage as well as being an efficient tool. Crisis management processes are frequently resource intensive andare typically combined with the team operating under time constraints. Use of technology ensures that the scarce resources are more efficiently used which in turn speeds up the processes as required. The crises management team roles and tasks can easily be put in a digital format and be readily available when needed. Similarly, a digital formatted process assists in building a structure around the leadership team. Typical tools would include briefing agendas, templates for reporting, record keeping etc. Technology also assists the communication teams in providing much of the information beforehand. One example is Q&A session that can easily be channeled by the use of e.g., bots. Equallygood telecommunications technology allows a professional approach to press conferences.Digitalizing communication is key in order to be timely synchronized with the external environment. To sum up, the use of technology enables the leadership in the crisis management organization to spend precious time on addressing the issue at hand and forward planning by establishing a road map to deal with the event.

The third and final pillar is the “known” prudence is the frequenttesting of your crisis management response and process. The learning outcomes from these tests, helps to build and better prepare the crises management team for the day the real crisis arises. The frequent testing of the process increases the ability of a crisis management team to deal with live events. In the real live case situation, eventsyou rarely get a second chance to make things right. Guaranteeing a crisis team is prepared to deal with the “curve ball” that can arise in the middle of a crisis, it is good to challenge the team with the “known unknowns during an exercise.”. I had the opportunity to listen to Mr. Rasmus Dahlberg PhD who speaking at a seminar, suggested that organizations should test “crazy stuff” to challenge the unknown. Challenging the crisis management process with scenarios out of the ordinary creates resilient organizations. For example, how many of us in the aviation community had tested a Covid-19 scenario? I would argue very few. Every single regulatory security and safety change to the industry both before and after 9/11, has come about as a reaction to events that have occurred. We seem to be reticent in being proactive in preventing or preparing for the unusual scenario. Drawing on our experiences, we can easily fall into a “group think” in to how any event will actually play out, and that is what we plan for. It takes a forward thinking senior management team which permits the crisis team to “think outside of the box” when coming up with scenarios.I would argue that such teams that are allowed to do this, will be better prepared when these events occur in a real live scenario.Having collective learning provides important insight for how to adapt and deal in particular with people affected. After all, taking care of people properly in a crisis takes the organization a long way. The forgiveness of any supposed shortcomings is more forthcoming to any team who are perceived to have done all they can to address the crises. At the end of the day, this is what a resilient organization is all about.